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Denoting the time points by –1,0 and 1 and regressing these on the observed proportions correct gives regression estimates of the above linear trend Denoting the time points by –1,0 and 1 and regressing these on the observed proportions correct give regression estimates of the above linear trend.
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||||||||<25% style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"> Observed proportion correct ||<25% style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"> 0.33 ||<25% style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"> 0.50 ||<25% style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"> 0.83 ||
||||||||<25% style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"> Expected proportion correct ||<25% style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"> 0.30 ||<25% style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"> 0.55 ||<25% style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"> 0.80 ||
||||||||<25% style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"> (Fitting a linear trend) ||<25% style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"> ||<25% style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"> ||<25% style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"> ||
||||||||<70% style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"> Observed proportion correct ||<10% style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"> 0.33 ||<10% style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"> 0.50 ||<10% style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"> 0.83 ||
||||||||<70% style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"> Expected proportion correct ||<10% style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"> 0.30 ||<10% style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"> 0.55 ||<10% style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"> 0.80 ||
||||||||<70% style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"> (Fitting a linear trend) ||<10% style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"> ||<10% style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"> ||<10% style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"> ||

A more powerful form of chi-square specifically tests for a linear trend in proportions across groups. For example, proportion remembered correctly using a memory aid.

Example

Time 1

Time 2

Time 3

Correct

3

6

10

Incorrect

9

6

2

Does the proportion correct change linearly over time?

The chi-square testing the presence of a linear trend is outputted by SPSS CROSSTABS as the Linear-by-Linear association term. The lack of fit is the difference between the Pearson chi-square value and the linear-by-linear one.

Model

Chi-square

Df

p-value

Linear

7.96

1

0.005

Lack of Fit

0.29

1

0.130

Total

8.25

2

0.004

(Pearson Chi-square)

So there is a linear trend providing a reasonable fit.

Denoting the time points by –1,0 and 1 and regressing these on the observed proportions correct give regression estimates of the above linear trend.

Observed proportion correct

0.33

0.50

0.83

Expected proportion correct

0.30

0.55

0.80

(Fitting a linear trend)

None: FAQ/ChiTrend (last edited 2013-08-28 10:47:50 by PeterWatson)